Risk-Aware Multi-Capacity Routing for Shift-Feasible Cosmetic Distribution

Abstract

Urban cosmetic distribution requires routing decisions that satisfy delivery time windows, vehicle capacity, and working-hour constraints. Conventional routing models often rely on deterministic travel-time assumptions and single-capacity limits, which mayobscure lateness risk and volume overload. This study proposes a risk-aware multi-capacity routing framework for shift-feasible cosmetic distribution. Customer and depot coordinates were used to estimate distances with the Haversine formula, adjusted by acircuity factor and converted into travel time. The model applies split-delivery preprocessing for oversized records, enforces weight and volume capacities, and distinguishes delivery trips from vehicle requirements within a 09:00–17:00 shift.Three routing models were evaluated: deterministic single-capacity, distance-based multi-capacity, and risk-aware multi-capacity routing. Results show that oversized records were split, eliminating unserved and infeasible customers. The single-capacity model produced multiple over-volume cases, while the multi-capacity model removed capacity violations without significantly affecting lateness or resource needs. The risk-aware model reduced lateness and late customers but increased travel time, delivery trips, and vehicle requirements. Sensitivity analysis confirmed stable conclusions across key assumptions. These findings highlight improved delivery reliability alongside trade-offs between service performance and resource usage.